麻豆传媒

A NUCLEAR NORTH KOREA AND PEACE IN THE KOREAN PENINSULA?

MY SPEECH WILL COVER THREE MAIN SUBJECTS, AND I HOPE TO STIMULATE SOME QUESTIONS FROM THE AUDIENCE.

I HAVE HAD A LONGTIME INTEREST IN THIS PENINSULA, SINCE SERVING AS A SUBMARINE OFFICER IN THE PACIFIC DURING THE KOREAN WAR. LATER, AS PRESIDENT, I WAS ABLE TO ESTABLISH DIPLOMATIC RELATIONS WITH THE PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHINA AFTER 30 YEARS OF ESTRANGEMENT – AND TO ENCOURAGE CHINA TO DEVELOP SIMILAR RELATIONSHIPS WITH SOUTH KOREA. I INTERCEDED STRONGLY IN YOUR NATION'S DOMESTIC AFFAIRS WHEN THE LIFE OF KIM DAE JUNG WAS ENDANGERED, AND DEVELOPED A PERSONAL FRIENDSHIP WITH HIM.

MY MOST INTERESTING INVOLVEMENT IN THE PENINSULA OCCURRED IN 1994, WHEN THE UNITED STATES AND OTHER NATIONS WERE ATTEMPTING TO IMPLEMENT A U.N. SECURITY COUNCIL RESOLUTION TO CONDEMN NORTH KOREA AND IMPOSE MORE PUNITIVE SANCTIONS BECAUSE OF KIM IL SUNG'S APPARENT PLANS TO PURIFY SPENT NUCLEAR FUEL RODS INTO WEAPONS GRADE PLUTONIUM.

I HAD A SERIES OF URGENT MESSAGES FROM PRESIDENT KIM, FOLLOWED BY PERSONAL VISITS TO MY HOME FROM HIS EMISSARIES, URGING ME TO COME TO PYONGYANG TO CONSULT WITH HIM ON HOW HE MIGHT ALLEVIATE THE INTERNATIONAL TENSION. LEADERS IN WASHINGTON REFUSED TO HAVE ANY DIRECT COMMUNICATION WITH NORTH KOREA. I WAS ALSO RELUCTANT TO DO SO, UNTIL SOME CHINESE FRIENDS CAME TO TELL ME THAT, TO SAVE FACE, NORTH KOREANS WOULD LAUNCH A MILITARY STRIKE AGAINST SEOUL IF THE D.P.R.K WAS CONDEMNED AS AN OUTLAW NATION AND THEIR "GREAT LEADER" BRANDED AS A CRIMINAL. THE U.S. COMMANDER IN KOREA, GENERAL GARY LUCK, TOLD ME THAT THE CONFLICT WOULD PROBABLY NOT LAST 90 DAYS AND MUCH OF NORTH KOREA WOULD BE DESTROYED, BUT MORE THAN A MILLION PEOPLE IN AND AROUND SEOUL WOULD DIE FROM SUCH AN ATTACK.

I FINALLY TOLD KIM IL SUNG THAT I WOULD ACCEPT HIS INVITATION IF MY WIFE AND I COULD COME TO SOUTH KOREA, CROSS THE DMZ, AND GO DIRECTLY TO HIS CAPITAL CITY. THIS HAD NOT BEEN PERMITTED SINCE THE KOREAN WAR. HE FINALLY AGREED, AND WE FIRST WENT TO SEOUL, WHERE WE HAD TALKS WITH PRESIDENT KIM YOUNG SAM AND HIS TOP ADVISERS. THEN MY WIFE AND I WERE WELCOMED AT THE PANMUNJOM CROSSING IN JUNE, 1994, AND PROCEEDED TO PYONGYANG. WE WERE THE FIRST PEOPLE TO MAKE THIS DIRECT TRIP IN 43 YEARS.

OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WE HAD VERY FRANK, SUBSTANTIVE, AND PLEASANT DISCUSSIONS WITH PRESIDENT KIM IL SUNG AND HIS EXPERTS ON THE NUCLEAR ISSUE. I WAS TRAINED AS A NUCLEAR ENGINEER AND ABLE TO DISCUSS THE ISSUES IN DETAIL. ROSALYNN AND I WERE SURPRISED AT HOW KNOWLEDGEABLE PRESIDENT KIM WAS ON EVERY MATTER. HE HAD ALREADY EXPELLED THE INTERNATIONAL INSPECTORS AND DISCONNECTED SURVEILLANCE EQUIPMENT WITHIN THEIR OLD GRAPHITE-MODERATED ATOMIC POWER PLANT AT YONGBYON, BUT HE LISTENED CAREFULLY TO MY PROPOSALS. HERE ARE SOME OF MY PERSONAL NOTES:

"PRESIDENT KIM IL SUNG IS 82 YEARS OLD, BUT WE FOUND HIM TO BE VIGOROUS, ALERT, INTELLIGENT, AND REMARKABLY FAMILIAR WITH THE ISSUES. HE CONSULTED FREQUENTLY WITH HIS ADVISERS, EACH OF WHOM BOUNCED UP AND STOOD ERECT WHILE SPEAKING TO THEIR 'GREAT LEADER'.

"FINALLY, IN EFFECT, HE ACCEPTED ALL MY SUGGESTIONS, WITH TWO MAJOR REQUESTS:

1. THAT THE U.S. SUPPORT THEIR ACQUISITION OF MODERN LIGHT WATER REACTOR TECHNOLOGY, REALIZING THAT THE FUNDING AND EQUIPMENT COULD NOT COME DIRECTLY FROM AMERICA. HE WAS WILLING TO FREEZE THEIR NUCLEAR PROGRAM, BUT NEEDED ALTERNATIVE SOURCES OF POWER, INCLUDING FUEL OIL.
2. THAT THE U.S. GUARANTEE THERE WOULD BE NO MILITARY ATTACK AGAINST HIS COUNTRY. HE AGREED WITH ME THAT THE ENTIRE KOREAN PENINSULA SHOULD BE NUCLEAR-FREE."

WE TALKED FOR MANY HOURS, AND WE WERE INVITED THE NEXT MORNING TO GO ON A LONG RIDE WITH THE PRESIDENT AND HIS WIFE ON KIM JONG IL'S YACHT - FROM PYONGYANG DOWN THE RIVER TO THE "BARRICADE," A REMARKABLE FIVE-MILE DAM THAT CONTROLLED THE TIDES.

KIM IL SUNG EXPRESSED PLEASURE THAT SOUTH KOREAN PRESIDENT KIM YOUNG SAM HAD SUGGESTED A SUMMIT MEETING, AND SAID IT SHOULD BE DONE WITHOUT PRECONDITIONS OR EXTENDED PREPARATORY TALKS. HE PROPOSED RECIPROCAL MILITARY SITE INSPECTIONS AND A STEP BY STEP REDUCTION OF KOREAN ARMED FORCES TO 100,000 MEN ON EACH SIDE, WITH U.S. FORCES TO BE REDUCED IN THE SAME PROPORTION. HE OFFERED TO REMOVE ALL WEAPONS FROM WITHIN THE DMZ, JOINTLY TO PULL BACK MILITARY FORCES FROM NEAR THE ZONE, AND TO PERMIT UNRESTRICTED CROSS BORDER VISITATION.

KIM IL SUNG DIED SOON AFTER MY VISIT, BUT I RECEIVED A LETTER FROM HIS SON PLEDGING TO HONOR THE COMMITMENTS. ALL THE NUCLEAR AGREEMENTS WERE LATER ADOPTED BY KIM JONG IL AND PRESIDENT BILL CLINTON AND PUT INTO EFFECT.

SOUTH KOREAN PRESIDENT KIM DAE JUNG BEGAN A "SUNSHINE POLICY" TO LESSEN TENSIONS AND BUILD RECONCILIATION BETWEEN NORTH AND SOUTH KOREA, AND IN JUNE 2000 THE POSTPONED SUMMIT TALKS WERE HELD IN PYONGYANG, THE FIRST SUCH CONTACT IN 50 YEARS. THE LEADERS AGREED TO WORK TOWARD REUNIFICATION, FOR WHICH KIM DAE JUNG WAS AWARDED THE NOBEL PEACE PRIZE THAT YEAR.

HOWEVER, TWO YEARS LATER PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH CONDEMNED NORTH-SOUTH RECONCILIATION, BRANDED NORTH KOREA AS AN "AXIS OF EVIL," AND THREATENING MILITARY ACTION.

THE NORTH REACTED BY EXPELLING I.A.E.A INSPECTORS, DISCONNECTING SURVEILLANCE CAMERAS, AND WITHDRAWING AS A SIGNATORY OF THE NON-PROLIFERATION TREATY. THEY BEGAN REPROCESSING SPENT FUEL RODS INTO PLUTONIUM, AND NOW IT IS ASSUMED THAT NORTH KOREA HAS ATOMIC MATERIAL ENOUGH FOR APPROXIMATELY TEN WEAPONS. PRODUCTION CAPABILITY AT YONGBYON IS ENOUGH FOR TWO EXPLOSIVE CHARGES PER YEAR, AND THEY MAY ALSO HAVE A FACILITY TO ENRICH URANIUM.

LET'S REVIEW LATER DEVELOPMENTS: IN SEPTEMBER 2005 AFTER NORTH KOREA HAD TESTED A NUCLEAR WEAPON, PYONGYANG AND THE OTHER MEMBERS OF THE SIX POWER TALKS SIGNED A JOINT COMMITMENT TO WORK FOR THE DENUCLEARIZATION OF THE PENINSULA, TO IMPROVE BILATERAL TIES WITH NORTH KOREA, AND TO SUPPORT NORTH KOREA'S ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT.

IN FEBRUARY 2007, TO IMPLEMENT THE SEPTEMBER 2005 STATEMENT, THE SIX POWERS AGREED TO PROVIDE NORTH KOREA WITH AMPLE SUPPLIES OF HEAVY FUEL OIL IF PYONGYANG PROVIDED A "COMPLETE AND CORRECT" DECLARATION OF ITS NUCLEAR FACILITIES. THE I.A.E.A. MONITORS RETURNED TO NORTH KOREA AND WORK BEGAN TO DISMANTLE SOME OF THE PLUTONIUM-BASED OPERATIONS, BUT THIS COOPERATION STALLED DURING THE LAST MONTHS OF THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION.

EARLY IN PRESIDENT OBAMA'S TERM, NORTH KOREA LAUNCHED A MULTI-STAGE ROCKET USING BALLISTIC MISSILE TECHNOLOGY IN VIOLATION OF UN SECURITY COUNCIL RESOLUTION 1718, CONDUCTED ANOTHER TEST OF A NUCLEAR WEAPON, AND ALSO TESTED A SERIES OF SHORTER-RANGE MISSILES.

U.S. SPECIAL ENVOY, STEPHEN BOSWORTH, WENT TO PYONGYANG IN MARCH 2009 AND RETURNED IN DECEMBER. HE CONTINUES TO CONSULT WITH THE OTHER SIX PARTY PARTNERS.

***

LET'S LOOK FOR A FEW MOMENTS AT THE OVERALL NUCLEAR SITUATION. ALL NATIONS ARE SIGNATORIES OF THE NON-PROLIFERATION TREATY EXCEPT NORTH KOREA, PAKISTAN, INDIA, AND ISRAEL. THERE ARE MORE THAN 40 NATIONS THAT HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF DEVELOPING A NUCLEAR ARSENAL, AND IT IS ENCOURAGING AND SOMEWHAT REMARKABLE THAT THERE ARE NOW ONLY NINE NUCLEAR STATES, 65 YEARS AFTER THE ONLY NUCLEAR ATTACK ON JAPAN IN 1945.

AT THIS TIME THERE ARE THREE MAJOR THREATS: FROM IRAN'S POTENTIAL PLANS, FROM SOME OF PAKISTAN'S WEAPONS BEING TAKEN BY MILITANTS, AND FROM NORTH KOREA.

YOUR NEIGHBOR'S ARSENAL CAUSES SERIOUS REEXAMINATIONS OF THE NON-NUCLEAR POLICY IN JAPAN AND SOUTH KOREA. IT IS WELL KNOWN THAT JAPAN HAS A LARGE STOCKPILE OF HIGHLY ENRICHED URANIUM, AND COULD HAVE AN ARSENAL ALMOST OVERNIGHT.

TO BE TECHNICAL FOR A MOMENT: THE EXPLOSIVE U-235 IS ABOUT 0.7% OF THE NATURAL METAL, WHICH CAN BE ENRICHED IN A STAGE OF CENTRIFUGES TO ABOUT 4%, THEN FROM 4% TO APPROXIMATELY 20%, THEN FROM 20% TO ABOUT 90%, ADEQUATE FOR A BOMB. VOLUME DROPS WITH ENRICHMENT, SO FEWER CENTRIFUGES ARE NEEDED AT EACH STAGE. IRAN PROBABLY HAS ABOUT 10,000 CENTRIFUGES, WITH A CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING 12 POUNDS OF ENRICHED URANIUM PER DAY, OR ENOUGH LOW-ENRICHED ATOMS EVERY FOUR MONTHS, IF FURTHER ENRICHED, TO MAKE A BOMB. SAUDI ARABIA, EGYPT, AND TURKEY MIGHT FOLLOW IN THE FOOTSTEPS OF AN IRANIAN NUCLEAR WEAPONS TEST.

THE GREATEST THREAT IS FROM PAKISTAN, WHICH HAS BEEN RAPIDLY EXPANDING ITS ARSENAL (NOW TO ABOUT 100 BOMBS) AND DISPERSING WEAPONS TO MINIMIZE THE DAMAGE FROM A POTENTIAL INDIAN PREEMPTIVE STRIKE. AL QAEDA HAS MOVED FROM AFGHANISTAN INTO PAKISTAN, AND POSES A DANGER OF WEAPONS FALLING INTO THE HANDS OF TERRORISTS. ALSO, IT IS KNOWN THAT PAKISTANI NUCLEAR SCIENTIST A. Q. KHAN SOLD NUCLEAR FUEL AND TECHNOLOGY TO SEVERAL EAGER BUYERS, INCLUDING NORTH KOREA AND IRAN.

***

THERE ARE NOW THREE GROUPS PUSHING FOR LEGITIMATE NUCLEAR STATES TO FULFILL THEIR LONG-VIOLATED PROMISES AS SIGNATORIES OF THE NPT, IN ORDER TO MOVE TOWARD A NUCLEAR-FREE WORLD. GLOBAL ZERO HAS JUST RELEASED A FILM, PRODUCED BY THE SAME FILMMAKER AS AL GORE'S "AN INCONVENIENT TRUTH." I PLAY A SMALL ROLE IN THE FILM, AND AM ALSO SUPPORTING TWO OTHER EFFORTS: ONE SPONSORED BY LEADERS OF AUSTRALIA AND JAPAN, AND THE OTHER ORIGINATED BY AMERICANS HENRY KISSINGER, GEORGE SCHULTZ, SAM NUNN, AND BILL PERRY. PRESIDENT OBAMA HAS ENDORSED ALL THESE EFFORTS AND IS SEEKING NUCLEAR ARMS AGREEMENTS WITH RUSSIA.

UNFORTUNATELY, IN RECENT YEARS AMERICAN LEADERS HAVE RENEGED ON OUR PREVIOUS "NO FIRST USE" PLEDGE, THE ANTI-BALLISTIC MISSILE TREATY, AND PROMISES TO FORGO DEVELOPMENT OF NEW NUCLEAR WEAPONS. THE U.S. HAS NOT RATIFIED THE COMPREHENSIVE TEST BAN AGREEMENT OR APPROVED THE I.A.E.A. PROPOSALS FOR "ENHANCED SAFEGUARDS" AND A MULTINATIONAL FUEL BANK. OF SPECIAL CONCERN WAS THE DECISION BY GEORGE W. BUSH TO PROVIDE INDIA WITH BOTH NUCLEAR FUEL AND TECHNOLOGY DESPITE ITS REFUSAL TO SIGN THE NPT OR ACCEPT INTERNATIONAL SAFEGUARDS.

***

WHAT CAN WE EXPECT CONCERNING FUTURE RELATIONSHIPS IN THE KOREAN PENINSULA? A FEW YEARS AGO I WROTE A BOOK CALLED "OUR ENDANGERED VALUES," AND I INCLUDED MY THOUGHTS ABOUT THIS IMPORTANT ISSUE.

FIRST OF ALL - AND DIFFICULT FOR SOUTH KOREA AND THE UNITED STATES - IS THE NEED FOR MORE DIRECT NEGOTIATIONS WITH NORTH KOREA. THE PERPETUATION OF THEIR REGIME IS PARAMOUNT IN PYONGYANG, AND THE LEADERS AND PEOPLE HAVE SUFFERED FROM ECONOMIC SANCTIONS AND DIPLOMATIC EXCLUSION FOR MORE THAN FIFTY YEARS. WITH THEIR INGRAINED "SU-CHE" PHILOSOPHY, THEY ARE RELATIVELY IMMUNE TO FURTHER DEPRIVATION FROM EMBARGOES.

I DON'T DENY THAT SOME OF THIS PUNISHMENT HAS BEEN MERITED, BUT IT WAS OBVIOUS TO ME WHEN I WAS IN NORTH KOREA THAT THERE IS DEEP RESENTMENT OF THE PAST AND GENUINE FEAR OF PREEMPTIVE MILITARY ATTACKS IN THE FUTURE. EXPERIENCE INDICATES THAT IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THE NORTH KOREANS WILL BACK DOWN UNLESS THE UNITED STATES MEETS THE BASIC DEMANDS THAT I RECEIVED FROM PRESIDENT KIM IL SUNG: DIRECT TALKS WITH THE UNITED STATES LEADING TO A SIMPLE FRAMEWORK OF AN AGREEMENT, WITH ALL PROMISED ACTIONS TO BE CONFIRMED, STEP BY STEP:

1. THE UNITED STATES GIVES A FIRM STATEMENT OF "NO HOSTILE INTENT" AND MOVES TOWARD NORMAL DIPLOMATIC RELATIONS IF NORTH KOREA REMAINS AT PEACE WITH ITS NEIGHBORS AND FOREGOES ANY NUCLEAR WEAPONS PROGRAM, WITH COMPLIANCE TO BE CONFIRMED BY UNIMPEDED INTERNATIONAL INSPECTIONS;
2. BASIC PREMISES OF THE AGREEMENTS OF 1994 ARE TO BE HONORED, WITH JAPAN, SOUTH KOREA, THE UNITED STATES, RUSSIA, AND CHINA COOPERATING TO PROVIDE A REPLACEMENT FOR LOST ENERGY SUPPLIES, WITH MODERN NUCLEAR PLANTS AND INTERIM FUEL OIL SUPPLIES.

ALONG WITH POLITICAL ASSURANCES AND ECONOMIC HELP FOR NORTH KOREA, THE FEBRUARY 2007 AGREEMENT SHOULD BE HONORED AND DENUCLEARIZATION SHOULD BE AN IMPORTANT PART OF BILATERAL AND MULTILATERAL TALKS.

NO ONE CAN PREDICT THE FINAL ANSWERS FROM PYONGYANG, BUT THERE IS NO HARM IN MAKING A MAJOR EFFORT, INCLUDING UNRESTRAINED DIRECT TALKS. THE INITIATIVE MUST BE FROM AMERICA AND SOUTH KOREA.

THE ALTERNATIVE IS A CONTINUATION OF THE PRESENT PATH OF ESTRANGEMENT, ISOLATION, ADDITIONAL SUFFERING OF INNOCENT NORTH KOREAN PRIVATE CITIZENS, AND EVER-EXPANDING CONVENTIONAL AND NUCLEAR ARSENALS, PERHAPS LEADING TO A CATASTROPHIC WAR. THIS MUST BE AVOIDED, BY POLITICAL COURAGE AND WISE DIPLOMACY.